President Sri Lanka Gotabaya Rajapaksa had opposed the call to resign, instead promised to form a new government after this week’s clash killed eight people in the escalation of the crisis for months due to lack of food and fuel.
I will provide an opportunity for new governments and new PMs to start a new program to bring the country in the future,” he said in a television speech, adding that after stability was restored, he would discuss the executive forces with all political parties.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa had previously extended the national curfew until Thursday morning, after the government supporters on Monday initiated attacks on the protesters who were camping for weeks in downtown Colombo to call for his dismissal. The opponents of Mr. Rajapaksa then attacked members of the party parliament in power and burned some of their homes, encouraging key family members to effectively hide.
His brother Mahinda Rajapaksa stopped as a prime minister that led to the dissolution of the cabinet, not leaving the government to negotiate with international monetary funds and creditors with $ 8.6 billion debt due to this year. The agreement is very important to stabilize state finances and help the government provide important goods for 22 million countries.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa refused to resign, and the opposition had rejected his offer about the unity government without constitutional changes that would reduce the presidency.
He needs to give the country to a period of time about what will happen,” Jehan Pera, executive director at the National Peace Council in Colombo, said the President. “This is one way he can redeem himself as a statesman before everything is worse.”
This is what can happen next:
1. The president is impeached
Under the constitution of Sri Lanka, eliminating the president is difficult and time consuming. First, a resolution must be ratified by two -thirds of parliament who explain why a president is not feasible for positions, then it must be investigated by the Supreme Court, and then if the judge agrees with these findings, parliament members need to vote again.
Officials in the front party of the people of Sri Lanka who were in power said they were still leading the majority in parliament, and last week they proved that they had numbers in the voting for the new speaker. It is unclear whether violence, which caused an attack on the houses of more than two dozen members of parliament and former ministers who were connected with Rajapaksas, and the death of a member of the ruling party parliament, changed the equation altogether.
2. President Forms Unity Government With Opposition
Now that his brother is gone as prime minister, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has made another overture to the opposition to form an all-party government. The main opposition parties have consistently rejected his offer, as the president would still retain large powers.
The influential Buddhist clergy and the Bar Council of Sri Lanka proposed an interim government that would run the country for 18 months while lawmakers draw up constitutional amendments to curb presidential powers. But any government that doesn’t have broad-based support is likely to be unstable.
3. President Dissolves Parliament, Holds Fresh Elections
The constitution doesn’t allow the president to dissolve parliament until midway through its five-year term, which isn’t until February 2023. But it does allow the parliament to request a dissolution before then by passing a resolution.
While some opposition leaders have floated this option in recent days, elections will also be expensive and time-consuming. And even if the opposition wins, Gotabaya Rajapaksa would still retain key powers as the president. He has the power to appoint a prime minister who in his opinion commands the parliament majority, and he will have a large say in naming and firing cabinet ministers. He can also assign himself to any ministry portfolio.
This is why the opposition has put forward a bill to clip the powers of the presidency rather than pushing for an election. The previous cabinet under Mahinda Rajapaksa had also put in motion the writing of a new bill to curb the executive presidency.
While an election could possibly give the opposition the two-thirds majority it needs to change the constitution, that may need the endorsement of a referendum and will possibly get tied up in the Supreme Court — all of which could drag on for months.
4. President Resigns, Flees the Country
This is what the protesters are hoping for with their chants of “Go Home Gota,” and can’t be ruled out if the violence spreads. If the president resigns, then immediately whoever becomes prime minister would take over, with the house speaker as next in line.
Then parliament has one month to elect his replacement by an absolute majority through a secret ballot, according to the constitution. Any lawmaker would be eligible, including an outsider who takes a party-list position ahead of the vote. The new president will hold office for the remainder of the term, which ends in 2024.
Nishan De Mel, executive director of Verite Research, said Gotabaya Rajapaksa has three main options: resignation, impeachment, or a compromise that includes reducing presidential powers. “He has been resisting all three options,” Mr De Mel said.
5. Military Coup
While Sri Lanka has a history of authoritarian rule, if anyone stages a coup it will likely be to help the Rajapaksas. The brothers have run Sri Lanka for 13 of the past 17 years, often with an iron fist. Gotabaya Rajapaksa is widely credited with putting an end to a 26-year separatist conflict with ethnic Tamil rebels and has appointed more than two dozen serving or retired military officers into key posts.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s top allies include Sri Lankan army chief General Shavendra Silva, who has been sanctioned by the U.S. on allegations of war crimes committed during the last phase of the conflict with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, and Kamal Gunaratne, secretary to the defence minister who stands accused of similar actions. Both men have denied wrongdoing.
Mr Silva has told foreign diplomats that Sri Lanka’s army would uphold the constitution and was “prepared to provide security and protection to the state as necessary.”
For now, Mr Rajapaksa has given powers to the military under the emergency to detain people without a warrant for 24 hours while private property can be searched.